Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c26…1d30 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$218 (-15%) realized −$195 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$630
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 36% -49.8%
≤30d 11 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 36% -49.8%
≤90d 11 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 36% -49.8%
all 11 -23.0% -30.3% 36% 36% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 36% -49.8%
10% -37.0% 36% -54.6%
15% -43.1% 36% -59.0%
20% -48.7% 36% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$132 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 55¢ 48¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $180 −$176 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $131 +$161 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$144 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $203 −$62 -30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $20 11m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 12¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 14¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 14¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 14¢ $21 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $8 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $17 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.31 · official $37.31 (match) · 43 history records