Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c23…4262 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,107 (+24%) realized +$1,279 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% $0
other 35% −$102
sports 25% +$1,106
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +104.9% +85.4% 100% 100% +110.9%
≤90d 5 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% +56.5%
all 5 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% +56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 40% +56.5%
10% -33.0% 20% +41.5%
15% -39.4% 20% +27.9%
20% -45.4% 20% +15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +73% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$786 vs −$137 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,828
Realized+$1,279
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage78d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $500 $486 −$14 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $400 $330 −$70 (-17%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $400 $328 −$72 (-18%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $400 +$70 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $781 +$1,503 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $396 −$396 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,828.48 · official $2,828.72 (match) · 85 history records