Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c22…4301 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 35% −$13
sports 5% +$24
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 126 -1.7% -11.0% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 140 -2.5% -11.8% 9% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage114d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $476 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $368 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $380 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $151 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $409 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $193 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $589 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $442 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $621 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $180 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $389 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 23d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 25d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $169 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $169 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records