Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c22…cafb other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$513 (-20%) realized −$519 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$706
sports 7% +$227
crypto 4% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 13% -32.8%
≤30d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 13% -32.8%
≤90d 15 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 13% -32.8%
all 15 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 13% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 13% -32.8%
10% -32.9% 13% -39.2%
15% -39.4% 13% -45.1%
20% -45.3% 13% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$77 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$519
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)15 / 24
History coverage5d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+46%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+14%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 +$183 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$7 -29%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $509 −$77 -15%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $323 −$210 -65%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $167 +$227 +136%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $365 −$198 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $585 −$221 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $72 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $108 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $114 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $113 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $323 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $324 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $395 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $395 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $167 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $167 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.53 · official $231.07 (match) · 33 history records