Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c22…0a8c sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (220 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,424 (-9%) realized −$1,418 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%75W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day219.8pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$577
7 days−$547
14 days−$2,064
30 days−$1,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,986
other 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (220 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -7.8% -16.5% 43% 12% -19.5%
≤30d 196 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 15% -20.6%
≤90d 196 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 15% -20.6%
all 196 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 15% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover219.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 15% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 9% -28.2%
15% -35.8% 7% -35.1%
20% -42.1% 4% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,418
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses75 / 121
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day219.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Juan Bautista Torres 45¢ 33¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $47 −$6 -12%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $61 +$4 +6%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $65 +$5 +7%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $60 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $34 −$4 -12%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $16 −$6 -37%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $61 +$5 +9%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $45 −$1 -3%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $74 −$12 -16%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $73 +$12 +16%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $65 −$2 -3%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $203 −$173 -85%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $13 −$3 -23%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $80 +$2 +3%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $30 $0 -2%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $321 −$150 -47%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 15 $209 −$209 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $43 −$3 -8%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $56 −$6 -11%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $18 −$8 -45%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $83 −$2 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $135 +$4 +3%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $67 −$2 -4%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $75 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $72 +$1 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $41 +$4 +10%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $59 −$2 -3%
ITF Los Angeles: Spencer Johnson vs Nathan Trouve Jun 13 $21 −$1 -7%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$18 -35%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $55 −$2 -3%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $42 +$2 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $139 +$60 +43%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 34¢ $12 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 36¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 68¢ $7 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 69¢ $7 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 18¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 79¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 20¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 20¢ $0 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 76¢ $8 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 19¢ $0 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 83¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 19¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 65¢ $6 2h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 30¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 61¢ $3 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 19¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 21¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 23¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 70¢ $4 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 48¢ $1 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 67¢ $3 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 50¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 52¢ $3 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 45¢ $4 2h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca $0 2h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca $0 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 49¢ $5 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 50¢ $2 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 45¢ $4 3h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 51¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.81 · official $16.81 (match) · 3500 history records