Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c21…dcfc crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$183 (-6%) realized −$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$417
14 days+$382
30 days+$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$200
other 27% −$164
world 14% +$266
sports 11% +$501
finance 4% −$121
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +57.6% +42.6% 56% 53% +18.0%
≤30d 51 +26.8% +14.7% 49% 47% +0.7%
≤90d 51 +26.8% +14.7% 49% 47% +0.7%
all 51 +26.8% +14.7% 49% 47% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 47% +0.7%
10% +3.8% 47% -8.9%
15% -6.3% 43% -17.7%
20% -15.5% 39% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$45 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage30d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 46¢ 45¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +71%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$46 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +53%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $203 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$54 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$114 +146%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $41 +$310 +754%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $124 −$121 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$26 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $16 +$191 +1164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 9? Jun 09 $62 −$60 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $103 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$31 +119%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$366 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $24 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 19m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 2¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $40 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 21h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 66¢ $208 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.51 · official $64.04 · 114 history records