Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c20…f314 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$46 (+7%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 41% 41% -13.2%
≤30d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 41% 41% -13.2%
≤90d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 41% 41% -13.2%
all 22 +2.3% -7.4% 41% 41% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 41% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -21.5%
15% -24.4% 41% -29.1%
20% -31.8% 41% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $99 +$100 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records