Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c1f…4a4c crypto 1298 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$567 (+6%) realized +$567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%940W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$99
14 days+$129
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.0% -0.5% 78% 78% +5.7%
≤30d 179 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 65% -3.6%
≤90d 1295 -1.6% -10.9% 72% 66% -10.1%
all 1298 -1.5% -10.8% 72% 67% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 67% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 36% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 17% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses940 / 358
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1298 / 1298
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1298 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$16 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$10 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$22 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$11 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$30 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$11 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$46 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$13 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$15 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$34 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$27 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $24 +$9 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $18 +$17 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $24 −$18 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $20 +$7 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$10 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $23 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $7 −$4 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 26 $7 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 26 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $10 +$5 +46%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records