Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0C 0x0c1f…51f5 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$246 (+19%) realized +$240 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 78L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$11
14 days+$231
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$211
crypto 37% −$24
other 13% +$59
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -23.4% -30.7% 30% 30% -11.5%
≤30d 107 +1.0% -8.6% 27% 26% +8.6%
≤90d 107 +1.0% -8.6% 27% 26% +8.6%
all 107 +1.0% -8.6% 27% 26% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 26% +8.6%
10% -17.3% 26% -1.8%
15% -25.3% 26% -11.3%
20% -32.7% 25% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 78
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 112
History coverage13d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$78 +154%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$55 +180%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $51 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $86 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 37h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 37h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $5 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 36¢ $20 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 38h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $31 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.91 · official $125.91 (match) · 213 history records