Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c1e…7a22 crypto 251 markets active 2d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%149W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$24
sports 3% −$4
other 2% −$1
weather 2% −$8
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -18.4% -26.1% 50% 24% -37.4%
≤30d 227 -9.3% -17.9% 62% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 251 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 29% -15.6%
all 251 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 29% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 29% -15.6%
10% -24.3% 14% -23.7%
15% -31.6% 7% -31.1%
20% -38.3% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses149 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage68d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -39%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -30%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 758 history records