Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c1d…a420 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$715 (-39%) realized −$689 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$318
14 days−$734
30 days−$734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$725
other 31% −$25
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.8% -41.0% 31% 31% -39.7%
≤30d 29 -36.9% -42.9% 28% 28% -46.4%
≤90d 29 -36.9% -42.9% 28% 28% -46.4%
all 29 -36.9% -42.9% 28% 28% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 28% -46.4%
10% -48.4% 28% -51.5%
15% -53.4% 24% -56.2%
20% -57.9% 21% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$45 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$689
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage10d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 67¢ 14¢ $26 $5 −$21 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $28 +$19 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $27 −$24 -91%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 +$8 +52%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $24 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 +$10 +56%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$22 -92%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$18 -77%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $24 −$21 -89%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$10 -84%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $407 −$22 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 −$16 -37%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 −$61 -82%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $112 −$109 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $167 −$5 -3%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $53 +$73 +140%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $16 +$14 +86%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $47 +$78 +164%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $22 −$22 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 09 $22 −$21 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 09 $13 −$12 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $407 −$400 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 09 $34 −$34 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 15¢ $0 6m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $9 41m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 94¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 95¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $28 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming $0 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming $2 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 55¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $18 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 90¢ $0 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 91¢ $25 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 99¢ $0 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 45¢ $21 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 50¢ $24 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $16 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 90¢ $0 31h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 63¢ $18 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming $0 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming $0 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming $2 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 48¢ $24 47h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 95¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 91¢ $25 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $17 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master $5 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Game Master $0 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Game Master $3 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $23 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Game Master $2 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 46¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.35 · official $30.35 (match) · 85 history records