Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c18…a04c world 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16,164 (-23%) realized −$15,580 · open −$584
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate31%45W / 98L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days+$552
14 days+$572
30 days−$1,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$13,416
other 9% −$2,214
sports 3% −$1,012
finance 2% +$328
politics 1% −$382
crypto 0% −$108
economics 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.4% -24.4% 29% 29% +14.7%
≤30d 74 -23.0% -30.3% 32% 28% -21.4%
≤90d 114 -28.5% -35.3% 32% 23% -31.3%
all 143 -30.2% -36.8% 31% 22% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 22% -31.1%
10% -42.9% 19% -37.7%
15% -48.4% 15% -43.7%
20% -53.5% 10% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -37% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$249 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1,276
Realized−$15,580
Unrealized−$584
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses45 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)143 / 152
History coverage119d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $838 $650 −$187 (-22%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $783 $445 −$338 (-43%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $121 $98 −$23 (-19%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $46 $40 −$7 (-14%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $15 −$24 (-61%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $75 −$51 -68%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Jun 17 $103 −$30 -29%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 16 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 16 $207 −$55 -26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $377 −$372 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,239 +$1,060 +86%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $519 +$27 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$2 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $23 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 02 $55 −$19 -35%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $72 −$30 -41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 02 $36 −$8 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $282 −$13 -4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $3,378 −$1,149 -34%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $31 +$5 +17%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $12 +$5 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $12 +$3 +28%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $136 −$33 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $9 +$13 +145%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $40 −$4 -11%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $26 +$14 +54%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $32 +$20 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2,035 +$146 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $43 +$37 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $33 +$10 +30%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $8 +$7 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$3 -15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $10 +$13 +125%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $132 −$114 -87%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 30 $734 −$734 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $22 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,276.03 · official $1,278.76 (match) · 1316 history records