Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c15…944d politics 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9,054 (+83%) realized +$8,165 · open +$889
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day135.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2,142
politics 30% +$229
other 21% +$845
culture 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +61.1% +45.8% 78% 67% +57.5%
≤30d 14 +55.2% +40.4% 86% 64% +56.4%
≤90d 14 +55.2% +40.4% 86% 64% +56.4%
all 14 +55.2% +40.4% 86% 64% +56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.4% 64% +56.4%
10% ← realistic here +27.0% 57% +41.4%
15% +14.7% 50% +27.7%
20% +3.5% 50% +15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +74% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
41.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$20 · ×9.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×57.73 per $1 lost it wins $57.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$8,320
Realized+$8,165
Unrealized+$889
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)14 / 38
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day135.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $1,362 $2,278 +$917 (+67%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 33¢ $623 $960 +$337 (+54%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $787 $715 −$72 (-9%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $813 $662 −$151 (-19%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $596 $570 −$26 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 96¢ $318 $384 +$66 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $350 $306 −$44 (-12%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $219 $238 +$18 (+8%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $210 $225 +$15 (+7%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $208 $221 +$13 (+6%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $210 $195 −$15 (-7%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $162 $171 +$9 (+6%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $108 $117 +$9 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $90 $98 +$8 (+8%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $61 $68 +$7 (+12%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $48 $52 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $180 +$183 +102%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $856 +$647 +76%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $120 +$110 +92%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $168 −$4 -2%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $60 +$142 +236%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 18 $38 −$36 -95%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $307 +$393 +128%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $96 +$84 +88%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $724 +$704 +97%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $625M? Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $500M? Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M? Jun 03 $177 +$49 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 4h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,320.25 · official $8,320.25 (match) · 3500 history records