Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c15…9a45 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$784,251 (-815%) realized −$783,864 · open −$387
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 41L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$637per market
Trades / day163.2pace
Fees−$1,317est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$6,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$56,090
other 9% −$2,773
world 3% +$2,777
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 48% -72.3%
≤30d 84 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 49% -65.7%
≤90d 84 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 49% -65.7%
all 84 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 49% -65.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 49% -65.7%
10% -21.3% 44% -69.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 37% -72.0%
20% -35.9% 32% -74.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +72% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$1,754 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$6,240
Realized−$783,864
Unrealized−$387
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,317
Open positions67
Markets (closed)84 / 151
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$637
Trades / day163.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 41¢ 78¢ $308 $589 +$281 (+91%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $393 $416 +$24 (+6%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $391 $398 +$7 (+2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 46¢ $388 $384 −$4 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 98¢ $303 $358 +$55 (+18%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 70¢ $390 $350 −$39 (-10%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $351 $348 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $367 $343 −$23 (-6%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 36¢ $392 $334 −$58 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $272 $329 +$57 (+21%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $213 $308 +$94 (+44%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 56¢ $214 $305 +$91 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $196 $189 −$7 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 60¢ $192 $161 −$31 (-16%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ 22¢ $392 $143 −$249 (-64%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 40¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $116 $112 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 22¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $38 $60 +$22 (+59%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 26¢ 18¢ $68 $49 −$19 (-28%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 30¢ $103 $49 −$55 (-53%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$15 -65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots Jun 15 $289 −$289 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $209 −$209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $213 −$213 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $454 −$454 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 15 $644 −$644 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $478 −$478 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $573 −$573 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $708 −$708 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $546 −$546 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $710 −$710 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $48 +$18 +38%
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $530 +$470 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $710 +$671 +94%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $705 +$193 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $50 +$44 +89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18 +$33 +183%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $180 +$107 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $694 +$2,000 +288%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $210 +$67 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$17 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $28 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 83¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $65 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,240.08 · official $6,239.42 (match) · 3500 history records