Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0C 0x0c13…25ab crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized −$2 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$25
crypto 36% −$7
other 22% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.4% -5.5% 36% 36% -5.6%
≤30d 11 +4.4% -5.5% 36% 36% -5.6%
≤90d 11 +4.4% -5.5% 36% 36% -5.6%
all 11 +4.4% -5.5% 36% 36% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 36% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 36% -14.6%
15% -22.8% 36% -22.9%
20% -30.4% 36% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $38 −$9 -24%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $4 +$6 +152%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? Jun 29 $13 +$26 +194%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$6 -54%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 +$5 +92%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 29 $5 +$13 +262%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $39 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 18¢ $9 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 39m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 5¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 22¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 26¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner SELL Paraguay 100¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY Paraguay 27¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.65 · official $52.86 (match) · 32 history records