Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0C 0x0c11…b0e6 crypto 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,255 (+9%) realized +$3,917 · open +$1,338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%158W / 90L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4,607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$116
14 days+$204
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$593
other 39% +$7,482
sports 17% −$2,028
world 0% +$27
politics 0% −$30
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% +5.3%
≤30d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -40.7%
≤90d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -40.7%
all 248 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 49% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 49% +0.8%
10% -6.9% 38% -8.9%
15% -15.9% 28% -17.7%
20% -24.1% 19% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$167 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$4,607
Realized+$3,917
Unrealized+$1,338
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses158 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)248 / 260
History coverage155d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2,935 $4,231 +$1,296 (+44%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 59¢ 66¢ $334 $376 +$42 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $223 +$111 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $97 −$96 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $190 +$108 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $198 −$8 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $212 +$88 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $570 −$552 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $101 +$101 +101%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 03 $23 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $300 −$261 -87%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? Feb 20 $125 +$39 +32%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $1,382 +$650 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $2,332 −$135 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 16 $194 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 16 $747 +$88 +12%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $16 +$33 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 16 $225 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $64 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 16 $179 +$144 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $154 −$152 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 16 $109 +$40 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 16 $234 −$32 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET Feb 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET Feb 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11AM ET Feb 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $64 +$67 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 16 $163 +$98 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 16 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $88 +$35 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $67 −$66 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $109 −$10 -9%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 16 $157 −$22 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 16 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 16 $83 +$164 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $36 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $306 −$65 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 16 $225 +$88 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 16 $150 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 59¢ $110 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $109 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 59¢ $228 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $228 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $332 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $334 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $10 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $213 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $212 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 16¢ $777 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 4¢ $203 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $812 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14 BUY 10¢ $1,027 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 22¢ $565 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13 BUY 15¢ $501 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14 BUY 9¢ $205 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13 BUY 11¢ $359 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13 BUY 10¢ $51 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13 BUY 70¢ $202 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,266 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o BUY 63¢ $8 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o BUY 63¢ $182 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 76¢ $190 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $198 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 17¢ $102 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 9¢ $113 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,606.96 · official $4,606.96 (match) · 1445 history records