Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c11…c64b other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$15
sports 12% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 9% -13.3%
≤30d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 9% -13.3%
≤90d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 9% -13.3%
all 11 -4.4% -13.5% 91% 9% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 9% -13.3%
10% -21.7% 0% -21.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -29.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$56 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $107 $129 +$23 (+21%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 98¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $78 $69 −$9 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $106 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $50 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $108 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $59 +$2 +3%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $110 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $80 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 97¢ $106 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $50 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $77 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $110 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $108 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY No 96¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY No 99¢ $60 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $60 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $56 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.29 · official $315.34 (match) · 38 history records