Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c11…6bb2 crypto 597 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$275 (-7%) realized −$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%254W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$44
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -27.9% -34.8% 34% 34% -26.9%
≤30d 56 -31.7% -38.2% 32% 32% -33.8%
≤90d 563 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 42% -19.9%
all 597 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 42% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 42% -17.9%
10% -26.6% 41% -25.8%
15% -33.7% 40% -32.9%
20% -40.2% 38% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses254 / 343
Open positions0
Markets (closed)597 / 597
History coverage92d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 597 Trades
no open positions (319 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$29 +280%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1181 history records