Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c10…5839 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-6%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$46
other 5% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 43% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 43% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 43% -9.7%
all 21 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 43% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 38% -18.3%
15% -46.4% 33% -26.2%
20% -51.7% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $212 +$49 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$39 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$14 +53%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $36 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records