Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c0e…434e
politics · 55 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$903,788 +49%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$517,168 · open +$70,715
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,011,394
Realized+$517,168
Unrealized+$70,715
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses33 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions139
Markets (closed)38 / 55
History coverage18d
Avg bet$33,418
Trades / day194.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 139 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,541
7 days−$33,516
14 days+$504,067
30 days+$517,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 84¢ $323,606 $355,523 +$31,916 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $121,621 $130,245 +$8,624 (+7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $122,723 $125,356 +$2,633 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 60¢ $69,942 $76,445 +$6,504 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $58,743 $66,634 +$7,891 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $58,852 $59,132 +$280 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 34¢ 99¢ $10,780 $31,758 +$20,978 (+195%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $29,669 $30,810 +$1,141 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $26,030 $27,096 +$1,067 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 91¢ $18,177 $17,163 −$1,014 (-6%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $9,516 $10,065 +$549 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 72¢ $10,795 $9,207 −$1,587 (-15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 66¢ 81¢ $6,600 $8,149 +$1,549 (+23%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,632 $8,004 +$3,372 (+73%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 65¢ 46¢ $9,236 $6,608 −$2,629 (-28%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 93¢ 96¢ $5,639 $5,838 +$199 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 62¢ $4,991 $4,666 −$324 (-6%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $12,615 $3,822 −$8,793 (-70%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,155 $3,029 −$126 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 86¢ $2,304 $2,752 +$448 (+19%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,459 $2,473 +$14 (+1%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,048 $2,214 +$1,166 (+111%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,365 $1,968 −$397 (-17%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,531 $1,859 +$328 (+21%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,222 $1,330 +$108 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11,879 −$11,879 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,157 −$1,157 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$495 +39901%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $0 $0 +7%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $14,423 +$560 +4%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2,635 +$101 +4%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $265 +$3 +1%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $1,318 +$11 +1%
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $28,648 −$21,041 -73%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 09 $909 +$26 +3%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $919 +$174 +19%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10,395 +$105 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $4,666 +$110 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $9,895 +$248 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26,000 −$4,188 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $17,802 +$722 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,000 +$1,611 +161%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24,000 +$510 +2%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 06 $2,831 +$71 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35,000 −$7,480 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,964 +$4,727 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $229,124 +$416,602 +182%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $366 +$51 +14%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $4,583 +$151 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $219,566 +$10,851 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10,934 +$1,477 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $42,611 +$4,426 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33,085 +$3,768 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5 +$2 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $29,700 +$103,009 +347%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $923 +$52 +6%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $385 +$19 +5%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $283 +$15 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $55,362 +$4,891 +9%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $100,716 +$8,118 +8%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $215 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$585,466
politics 21% −$3,426
other 5% +$1,484
finance 4% +$12,173
crypto 0% +$4,727
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 2m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 20m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $279 32m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 33m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5,751 40m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $112 1h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $993 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $4 3h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 100¢ $58 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $101 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $101 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $101 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7,050 4h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,778 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +101.3% +82.1% 79% 16% -28.9%
≤30d 38 +69.2% +53.1% 87% 26% +40.8%
≤90d 38 +69.2% +53.1% 87% 26% +40.8%
all 38 +69.2% +53.1% 87% 26% +40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover194.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.1% 26% +40.8%
10% +38.4% 16% +27.3%
15% ← realistic here +25.0% 13% +15.0%
20% +12.8% 13% +3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011,393.95 · official $1,011,394.94 (match) · 3500 history records