Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c0d…43b3 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$51 (-23%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$29
economics 16% −$12
politics 14% −$7
other 11% −$7
world 3% −$6
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -25.2%
≤30d 5 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% -25.2%
≤90d 7 -59.7% -63.5% 14% 14% -31.5%
all 22 -41.7% -47.2% 23% 18% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 18% -37.5%
10% -52.3% 18% -43.5%
15% -56.9% 9% -49.0%
20% -61.1% 9% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage225d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Over 54¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in December? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 −$3 -39%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13 −$9 -72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 +$7 +25%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $28 −$9 -32%
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Jan 02 $6 −$6 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Dec 10 $9 −$3 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? Dec 04 $3 −$2 -57%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 22 $27 −$23 -85%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $9 +$11 +113%
Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (November 3 - 9) Nov 08 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025? Nov 08 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 08 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 07 $4 +$5 +138%
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 03 $8 −$5 -67%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 03 $6 −$1 -10%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 03 $8 +$3 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 14m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $5 23m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $4 49m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $8 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $13 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $18 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 3h
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? BUY Yes $6 185d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin SELL Yes $6 186d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $4 186d
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? BUY Yes $0 187d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin BUY Yes $5 187d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $9 187d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $6 191d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $9 192d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? SELL Yes $1 192d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 192d
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? BUY Yes $0 192d
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? BUY Yes $1 192d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $10 192d
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? BUY Yes $0 192d
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in December? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 193d
Will Trump say "N Word" in December? BUY Yes $0 193d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $3 193d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin BUY Yes 10¢ $4 193d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $1 193d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $4 193d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $10 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.45 · official $23.45 (match) · 89 history records