Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0c0c…16af other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% $0
world 16% −$1
sports 14% +$21
politics 10% −$3
finance 7% +$4
crypto 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -6.8%
all 37 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 8% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -6.4%
10% -17.2% 5% -15.3%
15% -25.2% 5% -23.5%
20% -32.5% 5% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage484d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 +$4 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -7%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $2 $0 +21%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by March 31? Mar 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $32 +$1 +3%
Albany vs. Vermont Mar 06 $21 +$11 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 04 $11 +$11 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 2m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 23d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship BUY No 98¢ $1 351d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 365d
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? BUY No 97¢ $1 384d
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? BUY No 100¢ $2 400d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 97¢ $2 414d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $16 429d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $12 429d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 429d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 429d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 429d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 429d
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 1¢ $0 431d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $27 431d
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $27 432d
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 1¢ $1 432d
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $27 432d
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the BUY Yes 1¢ $0 432d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records