Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c0b…c814 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-5%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$127
sports 20% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 18% -15.6%
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 18% -15.6%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 18% -15.6%
all 11 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 18% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 18% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -23.6%
15% -24.9% 0% -31.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$33 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 −$15 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $85 −$3 -4%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $82 +$9 +11%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $28 +$4 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $578 −$112 -19%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $18 +$1 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ $0 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $13 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $14 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $96 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $331 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 10m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $4 38m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $5 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $4 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $6 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $17 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $412 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $419 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $80 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $83 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 45¢ $19 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 46¢ $0 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 42¢ $18 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 43¢ $0 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 42¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records