Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c0b…01a4 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,714 (+13%) realized +$1,714 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$608
7 days+$608
14 days+$608
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$430
world 24% +$4,237
sports 23% −$1,566
finance 16% +$107
crypto 8% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +151.6% +127.7% 100% 100% +120.7%
≤30d 14 -22.9% -30.2% 36% 36% -9.3%
≤90d 27 -30.5% -37.1% 30% 30% -0.1%
all 45 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 36% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 36% +7.0%
10% -19.3% 36% -3.2%
15% -27.1% 31% -12.6%
20% -34.2% 27% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$202 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage124d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $254 +$289 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 28 $168 +$319 +189%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,007 +$292 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $184 −$179 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$220 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $98 −$95 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $186 −$182 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $18 $0 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $404 −$396 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $320 −$317 -99%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $215 −$211 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $858 +$720 +84%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $88 −$86 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $325 −$322 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 08 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Apr 08 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $364 +$930 +255%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $780 +$1,220 +156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 25 $150 +$123 +82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $598 −$393 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 09 $463 −$463 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Mar 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $298 +$259 +87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 08 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 06 $500 +$36 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 06 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $300 +$403 +134%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 06 $205 +$54 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 03 $500 −$112 -22%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $500 +$203 +41%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $400 −$400 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $300 +$638 +212%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $215 +$1,934 +900%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $254 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 43¢ $219 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 15d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 18¢ $184 15d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 43¢ $168 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 34¢ $168 15d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $169 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 17d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 17d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $98 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $82 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $186 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $18 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $18 29d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 36¢ $404 54d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 75d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 75d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $320 75d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 45¢ $270 77d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $215 78d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $88 81d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $325 82d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 82d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $212 82d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 82d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records