Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c06…6571 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$247 (+0%) realized −$18 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%52W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,795per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$115
other 6% +$395
politics 5% $0
sports 4% +$5
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 100% +0.5%
≤30d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 25% -4.6%
all 59 +0.3% -9.2% 88% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,132) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×58.01 per $1 lost it wins $58.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses52 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage257d
Avg bet$1,795
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 35¢ 52¢ $537 $802 +$265 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 17 $1,174 +$130 +11%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,153 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $1,122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $4,387 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $1,897 +$4 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $2,485 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1? Mar 02 $4,377 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $4,368 +$9 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Feb 28 $4,363 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,358 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,354 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,350 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,345 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,341 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,337 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $4,332 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,374 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $1,371 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,363 +$7 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,361 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,360 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8? Feb 09 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 8? Feb 09 $1,357 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $1,352 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $1,341 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Feb 06 $1,339 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 4? Feb 05 $1,338 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 3? Feb 04 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Feb 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on November 28? Nov 29 $657 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on November 28? Nov 29 $743 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on November 26? Nov 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 26? Nov 27 $1,250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 25? Nov 25 $1,396 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 24? Nov 25 $1,394 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? Nov 24 $1,393 +$1 +0%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,392 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 22 Nov 23 $1,156 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on November 22? Nov 23 $235 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on November 21? Nov 22 $1,390 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $1,388 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,387 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 19 $1,386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 18 $1,384 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 16 $1,383 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 52¢ $21 15m
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 44¢ $47 44m
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 58¢ $53 1h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 55¢ $17 1h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 36¢ $84 1h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 34¢ $505 1h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $140 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $179 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $49 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $65 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $176 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $297 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $295 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $104 47h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,119 47h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 51d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL No 50¢ $1,153 53d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 50¢ $1,153 53d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,122 106d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,122 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $4,387 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,897 109d
Will Solana dip to $70 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,485 109d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,377 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4,368 111d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? BUY No 100¢ $4,363 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.45 · official $802.45 (match) · 160 history records