Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c05…fabf sports 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,734 (+11%) realized +$3,733 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate79%265W / 69L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$5
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,816
other 3% +$36
crypto 2% −$52
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$6
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.2% +15.0% 100% 100% +10.7%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 57% -2.4%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 57% -2.4%
all 334 +8.5% -1.8% 79% 34% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 34% +0.9%
10% -11.2% 28% -8.8%
15% -19.8% 27% -17.6%
20% -27.7% 24% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$85 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized+$3,733
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses265 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 335
History coverage205d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 81¢ 81¢ $1,049 $1,049 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $197 +$42 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $19 +$6 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $79 −$33 -42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $237 −$10 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $57 +$32 +56%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Feb 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 24 $16 −$3 -20%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 Feb 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5 Feb 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5 Feb 23 $32 +$17 +54%
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $4 +$2 +50%
Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 22 $0 $0 -100%
Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 22 $11 +$6 +56%
Grayson Allen: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $23 +$12 +54%
Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $21 +$12 +57%
Max Christie: Points O/U 15.5 Feb 21 $21 +$12 +58%
Josh Giddey: Points O/U 17.5 Feb 20 $9 +$5 +54%
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 Feb 20 $18 +$10 +56%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Campbell Fighting Camels Feb 20 $330 −$221 -67%
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5 Feb 13 $33 +$17 +50%
Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 13 $53 +$30 +56%
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5 Feb 12 $22 +$13 +59%
De'Anthony Melton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $65 +$40 +61%
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Feb 12 $135 +$100 +74%
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 13.5 Feb 12 $204 +$122 +60%
Dominick Barlow: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 12 $307 +$170 +55%
Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 12 $680 +$416 +61%
Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 Feb 11 $1,114 −$1,110 -100%
Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Feb 11 $630 −$627 -100%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5 Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 14.5 Feb 11 $495 −$495 -100%
Dominick Barlow: Points O/U 8.5 Feb 11 $164 −$164 -100%
Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5 Feb 11 $321 +$236 +74%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 11 $426 +$355 +83%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 Feb 11 $553 +$464 +84%
Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Feb 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5 Feb 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 12.5 Feb 10 $168 −$168 -100%
Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 10 $612 −$592 -97%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 10 $763 −$633 -83%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Feb 10 $70 +$80 +113%
Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Feb 10 $91 +$84 +92%
Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 10 $120 +$80 +67%
Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5 Feb 10 $466 +$334 +72%
Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5 Feb 10 $1,036 +$451 +44%
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 10 $574 +$407 +71%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $475 +$10 +2%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Feb 09 $69 +$37 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $507 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $350 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $198 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $197 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $12 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $7 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 38¢ $22 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 38¢ $2 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 38¢ $22 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 63¢ $28 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 63¢ $51 12d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 66¢ $53 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down 35¢ $53 13d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 60¢ $92 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 59¢ $3 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down 54¢ $94 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 51¢ $12 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 51¢ $49 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 50¢ $2 15d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? SELL Down 97¢ $90 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,049.40 · official $1,049.53 (match) · 1323 history records