Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c05…7c48 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$18
politics 17% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 5% +$5
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 5% -9.7%
all 110 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage92d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $133 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $198 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $11 18h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 24h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 41h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 44h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $11 5d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.69 · official $40.69 (match) · 299 history records