Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bff…c8a8 sports 1083 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$477 (-2%) realized −$479 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%404W / 664L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$183
14 days+$395
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,054
sports 41% −$1,599
crypto 3% −$62
tech 2% +$74
politics 1% +$46
world 1% −$113
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% −$17
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% +31.6%
≤30d 147 -2.8% -12.1% 40% 39% -3.5%
≤90d 944 -3.0% -12.2% 39% 38% -13.6%
all 1068 -3.9% -13.1% 38% 37% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 37% -11.9%
10% -21.4% 36% -20.3%
15% -29.0% 35% -28.0%
20% -35.9% 33% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$479
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses404 / 664
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1068 / 1083
History coverage95d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+34%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$36 +70%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$45 +221%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $32 +$18 +57%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $15 +$43 +281%
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$15 +152%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 20 $53 +$34 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$22 +87%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +158%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$16 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$18 +344%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$71 +198%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $127 +$128 +101%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 41¢ $25 13h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY 28¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 24¢ $10 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? BUY No 39¢ $10 3d
Will Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 26¢ $15 3d
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Fausto Tabacco BUY Georgii Kravchenko 60¢ $53 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 53¢ $25 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Czechia win on BUY 16¢ $10 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 6d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.42 · official $90.42 (match) · 2554 history records