Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bff…eaee weather 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
other 42% $0
world 15% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 64% 5% -9.5%
all 22 +2.1% -7.6% 64% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$771) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage88d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 21? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $815 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $807 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $823 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19? Mar 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $805 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $733 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $771 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Mar 20 $828 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on March 19? Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 19 $2 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$380 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $134 86d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $681 86d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $780 86d
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $35 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $613 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $194 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $144 86d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $663 86d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 86d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $823 86d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $297 87d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $395 87d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $113 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.29 · official $7.29 (match) · 61 history records