Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bfb…26a7 world 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$52,786 (+35%) realized +$52,505 · open +$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate74%165W / 57L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day103.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$13,544
other 18% +$239
politics 8% −$117
crypto 7% +$4,537
culture 5% +$211
tech 4% +$525
finance 1% +$82
sports 0% +$92
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +6.2% -3.9% 76% 41% +18.3%
≤30d 222 +24.9% +13.0% 74% 41% +4.3%
≤90d 222 +24.9% +13.0% 74% 41% +4.3%
all 222 +24.9% +13.0% 74% 41% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.0% 41% +4.3%
10% +2.2% 24% -5.6%
15% ← realistic here -7.7% 17% -14.8%
20% -16.8% 13% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$154 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$30,712
Realized+$52,505
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses165 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions181
Markets (closed)222 / 312
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$483
Trades / day103.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 181 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 96¢ $977 $1,251 +$275 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 54¢ $996 $936 −$60 (-6%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $935 $878 −$57 (-6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 86¢ $846 $865 +$19 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 67¢ 70¢ $800 $840 +$40 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $742 $796 +$54 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $729 $791 +$63 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 70¢ $613 $748 +$135 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $710 $725 +$15 (+2%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 98¢ $645 $649 +$4 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 65¢ 68¢ $570 $601 +$31 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $557 $590 +$33 (+6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $656 $513 −$143 (-22%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $427 $449 +$22 (+5%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $359 $399 +$41 (+11%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $364 $397 +$32 (+9%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 20¢ 98¢ $77 $379 +$302 (+395%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $368 $368 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $324 $362 +$38 (+12%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $324 $358 +$34 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $346 $349 +$3 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $317 $348 +$31 (+10%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $327 $343 +$16 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Yes 56¢ 59¢ $317 $334 +$18 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $346 $334 −$12 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $495 +$105 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $98 +$102 +104%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $364 +$79 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $232 +$18 +8%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $232 $0 +0%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $109 +$2 +2%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $187 +$2 +1%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $379 +$5 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 22 $54 −$24 -44%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 22 $1,318 +$16 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $168 +$25 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $890 −$50 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $863 +$207 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $834 −$66 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $455 +$27 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$11 +27%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $366 +$53 +14%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $152 +$214 +141%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $272 +$5 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,009 −$456 -45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $283 +$17 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $852 +$295 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $902 +$157 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,544 +$1,331 +86%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $735 +$107 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,194 +$554 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5,584 −$33 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $8,348 +$6,551 +78%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $122 +$26 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $622 −$365 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,593 +$588 +37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $674 +$63 +9%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$56 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$60 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,076 +$138 +13%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $158 +$42 +27%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $279 +$21 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $385 +$15 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $430 +$20 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $104 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $162 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $136 13m
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 41m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $285 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $94 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $128 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 61¢ $122 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 63¢ $44 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $28 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 45¢ $31 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 46¢ $92 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $53 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $124 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,711.74 · official $30,711.81 (match) · 3500 history records