Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0bfb…cf44 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$259 (+13%) realized +$258 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 68L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$411
14 days+$411
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$235
sports 38% +$282
crypto 18% −$127
politics 1% −$11
world 1% −$10
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 29% +14.6%
≤30d 70 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 29% +14.6%
≤90d 101 -9.3% -18.0% 33% 31% +8.4%
all 101 -9.3% -18.0% 33% 31% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 31% +8.4%
10% -25.8% 25% -2.0%
15% -33.0% 21% -11.5%
20% -39.5% 21% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$11 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 68
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage57d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 30¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $39 +$33 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $38 +$25 +64%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$31 +307%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $119 +$38 +32%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$51 +125%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$31 +307%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $119 +$20 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 +$16 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $159 +$27 +17%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -60%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -55%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 −$14 -77%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -75%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $160 +$83 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$16 -79%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$6 -42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 −$14 -46%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 1m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $63 1m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 19m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 30m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $38 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $39 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 75¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0 BUY 19¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY 37¢ $61 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $91 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $139 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $119 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.25 · official $21.25 (match) · 200 history records