Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf9…f2e8 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$10
other 13% −$9
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -29.5%
≤30d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 31 -2.4% -11.7% 13% 3% -10.4%
all 43 -4.2% -13.3% 16% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage592d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $241 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $731 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $1,092 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 6h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 8h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $6 25h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $6 26h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $9 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $11 24d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.42 · official $29.42 (match) · 222 history records