Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bf8…fb84 crypto 812 markets active 23h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,249 (+7%) realized +$7,249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%454W / 356L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,956
weather 3% −$574
sports 3% −$556
other 2% −$265
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -21.1% -28.6% 27% 20% -23.5%
≤30d 96 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 33% -23.1%
≤90d 357 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 35% -19.9%
all 810 -4.2% -13.4% 56% 40% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 40% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 29% -17.8%
15% -29.2% 22% -25.7%
20% -36.2% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$63 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses454 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)810 / 812
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 810 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$12 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 $0 -2%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $25 +$17 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$13 -50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$37 -36%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $26 −$20 -76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$51 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $27 −$10 -35%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 −$17 -66%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$43 +43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $26 +$183 +712%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 +$111 +109%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $377 −$377 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$12 -48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $500 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$47 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $201 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$17 -68%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $75 +$128 +170%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$76 +38%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $26 +$121 +474%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$74 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $641 +$46 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $14 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $25 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 16¢ $4 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $25 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $43 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $25 28h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $13 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $26 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $10 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $24 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $25 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $7 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $1 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $5 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $1 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $17 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $34 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $76 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 7¢ $7 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records