Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf6…2d19 crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$582 (+6%) realized +$544 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%89W / 51L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$837
7 days−$837
14 days−$837
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$823
sports 10% +$623
other 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 50% -20.0%
≤30d 52 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 140 -0.9% -10.4% 64% 46% -11.9%
all 140 -0.9% -10.4% 64% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 46% -11.9%
10% -18.9% 30% -20.4%
15% -26.8% 24% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 16% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$34 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$544
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses89 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage53d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $400 $438 +$38 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $207 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $403 +$43 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $505 +$79 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $404 −$62 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $505 +$88 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $301 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1,535 −$1,379 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $606 +$100 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $404 +$58 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $304 +$77 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $606 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $406 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $204 +$85 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $2 +$2 +101%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 03 $1 +$1 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $850 +$630 +74%
Birmingham: Gabriela Knutson vs Joanna Garland Jun 02 $6 $0 +5%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $5 +$5 +106%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $6 +$1 +21%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 02 $6 +$9 +139%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $6 +$4 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $8 +$3 +31%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $2 $0 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $30 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $15 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $1 $0 +29%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1 +$1 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $2 −$1 -49%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 +$2 +179%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $12 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $321 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.63 · official $415.64 · 432 history records