Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0bf6…c7f5 crypto 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,988 (+63%) realized +$2,992 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%415W / 36L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$34
14 days−$64
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$60
weather 12% −$24
other 2% +$3,061
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 336 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 420 -2.7% -12.0% 96% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 451 -1.6% -10.9% 92% 2% +0.6%
all 451 -1.6% -10.9% 92% 2% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% +0.6%
10% -19.5% 1% -9.0%
15% -27.2% 1% -17.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +64% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.67 per $1 lost it wins $20.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2,992
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses415 / 36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)451 / 457
History coverage59d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.56 · official $45.56 (match) · 919 history records