Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0bf4…348d sports 634 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$245 (-5%) realized −$256 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%300W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$57
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$136
other 25% −$28
crypto 4% −$66
world 2% +$16
politics 1% −$21
tech 1% −$18
culture 1% +$14
finance 0% −$10
weather 0% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +23.4% +11.6% 65% 55% +19.5%
≤30d 122 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 48% -9.3%
≤90d 329 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 42% -19.6%
all 622 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 47% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -14.3%
10% -23.6% 45% -22.5%
15% -31.0% 41% -30.0%
20% -37.7% 35% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses300 / 322
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions12
Markets (closed)622 / 634
History coverage362d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? No 84¢ 80¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Spurs 43¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Thunder 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Cavaliers 74¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Thiago Agustin Tirante 69¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$21 +135%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $7 +$2 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $11 −$9 -77%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $10 +$7 +64%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $5 +$5 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $38 +$7 +18%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $10 +$7 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 30 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$3 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $2 +$2 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $3 +$3 +83%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 30 $20 +$3 +14%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Martin Krumich May 29 $5 +$2 +46%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $31 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 20h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 21h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $5 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 66¢ $11 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 43h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $10 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY 60¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 3d
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 55¢ $10 4d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.49 · official $98.55 (match) · 1395 history records