Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bf4…4e78 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$35 (-48%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$26
other 28% −$10
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
≤30d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
≤90d 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
all 15 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.7% 27% -62.5%
10% -61.7% 27% -66.1%
15% -65.4% 20% -69.3%
20% -68.8% 20% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48.87368691222865% → late -56.980320611235456% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.10 · official $4.10 (match) · 25 history records