Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bef…36e9 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$10
other 35% +$3
politics 12% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 15% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 17 -2.3% -11.6% 18% 0% -10.9%
all 45 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage250d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $6 −$1 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $50 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $54 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $54 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $121 −$4 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $37 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $49 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $2 $0 -14%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 20 $8 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 22 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Oct 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 +$3 +29%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $55 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $55 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $5 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $7 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $40 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $52 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $8 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $50 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $8 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $42 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records