Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bef…3b06 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized +$23 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$24
tech 24% −$2
other 20% −$19
sports 14% +$2
world 8% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -8.5%
all 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.25 per $1 lost it wins $14.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)8 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 75¢ 75¢ $154 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 52¢ 45¢ $148 $127 −$21 (-14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 49¢ 48¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 58¢ 48¢ $123 $101 −$22 (-18%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 72¢ 72¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $43 $27 −$16 (-38%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 39¢ 31¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-20%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 73¢ 74¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $149 +$8 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $154 $0 +0%
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 47¢ $13 58m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 46¢ $42 58m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 72¢ $37 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $157 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 58¢ $123 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 73¢ $8 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 49¢ $103 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 75¢ $154 2h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $149 3h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 73¢ $117 5h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 73¢ $36 5h
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 7h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 55¢ $121 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 73¢ $154 8h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $43 8h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 9h
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 9h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 86¢ $173 9h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 9h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $173 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 59¢ $3 9h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 10h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 10h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 10h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.49 · official $687.59 (match) · 47 history records