Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bee…cdc5 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$203
14 days+$205
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
world 21% −$19
crypto 11% +$211
politics 9% −$20
sports 9% −$164
tech 8% −$5
culture 5% +$2
finance 4% −$10
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.8% -20.2% 18% 18% +10.5%
≤30d 14 -7.0% -15.9% 21% 21% +9.9%
≤90d 65 -11.5% -19.9% 17% 6% -6.4%
all 72 -12.7% -21.1% 17% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 6% -9.2%
10% -28.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -35.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -41.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$9 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 60
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage157d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $333 $330 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $192 $189 −$3 (-2%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $5 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $219 +$271 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $150 −$147 -98%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $289 +$211 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -28%
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open Jun 20 $9 −$5 -50%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -14%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 28 $15 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 17 $26 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Amanda Hollowell be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? May 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 16 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? May 15 $12 −$8 -64%
Will Zach Dembo be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06? May 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $33 −$4 -12%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 15 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Cherlynn Stevenson be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06? May 15 $6 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027? May 15 $18 −$1 -7%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? May 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 12 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 12 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 07 $35 −$2 -7%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 07 $17 −$5 -30%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 07 $27 −$1 -2%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 07 $28 −$1 -2%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 07 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 07 $46 −$8 -17%
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at ma May 07 $23 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $196 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $338 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $219 5d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $8 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $277 6d
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL No 61¢ $12 6d
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? BUY No 61¢ $12 6d
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 6d
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open SELL No 24¢ $5 6d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 75¢ $37 6d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $38 6d
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open BUY No 47¢ $9 6d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 90¢ $45 6d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 90¢ $45 6d
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 6d
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $6 13d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $9 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes $1 24d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $14 29d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $15 29d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.80 · official $524.80 (match) · 218 history records