Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bed…9ea8 other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$39
sports 19% −$13
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$7
culture 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $291 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $547 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $258 −$2 -1%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $367 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $357 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $327 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $382 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $772 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $574 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $435 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 14h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 23h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 35h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 38h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 40h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 45h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1287 history records