Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0beb…c643 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+8%) realized +$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2
sports 46% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.0% +10.4% 100% 100% +10.4%
≤30d 2 +15.8% +4.7% 100% 50% +5.0%
≤90d 2 +15.8% +4.7% 100% 50% +5.0%
all 2 +15.8% +4.7% 100% 50% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 50% +5.0%
10% -5.3% 0% -5.1%
15% -14.4% 0% -14.2%
20% -22.8% 0% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage15d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $75 +$17 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $69 +$7 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 49¢ $81 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $92 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $75 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 91¢ $69 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.25 · official $81.25 (match) · 7 history records