Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0beb…4503 sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$62 (-7%) realized −$39 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%60W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$42
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$64
other 19% $0
politics 12% +$27
tech 5% +$2
culture 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +43.8% +30.1% 56% 42% -23.9%
≤30d 112 +14.9% +3.9% 53% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 113 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 35% -14.2%
all 142 +10.1% -0.4% 42% 27% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 27% -14.3%
10% -9.9% 22% -22.5%
15% -18.6% 19% -30.0%
20% -26.6% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses60 / 82
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)142 / 149
History coverage224d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance from the CA-14 primary election? No 52¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+91%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the fight be won by submission? No 83¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ 75¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 42¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka West Indies 53¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+89%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays No 54¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+84%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 20¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+400%)
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Wingman 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 21¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A HMBLE 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner paiN 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 52¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage AM Gaming 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner AM Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner BOMBA Team 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs WRAITH PCIFIC 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Jo Adell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $4 +$3 +100%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta Jun 10 $36 +$3 +9%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $82 −$73 -89%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 10 $1 $0 +87%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +21%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $5 +$5 +83%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $3 +$2 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $7 +$3 +40%
Spread: Angola (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$3 +109%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +16%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$1 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $3 +$15 +428%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $13 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $4 +$11 +306%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1 +$5 +438%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $3 +$2 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $4 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage SELL Team Liquid 88¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 10h
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 10h
Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 10h
Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 10h
Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 10h
Jo Adell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 10h
Jo Adell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 10h
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 11h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 83¢ $4 11h
Nick Kurtz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 11h
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 11h
Jo Adell: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.21 · official $44.60 · 526 history records