Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0be8…2b3d sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized −$28 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$502
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$891
other 7% −$819
crypto 2% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 75% 55% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 75% 55% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 75% 55% -9.5%
all 30 -16.7% -24.6% 63% 50% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 50% -10.1%
10% -31.8% 23% -18.7%
15% -38.4% 17% -26.5%
20% -44.4% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$717) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -42% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$169 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage126d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Under 93¢ 99¢ $798 $853 +$55 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $178 +$32 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $201 +$70 +35%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $300 +$51 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $596 +$30 +5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $256 +$40 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $995 +$62 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $946 +$48 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $837 +$111 +13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $779 +$57 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,014 +$760 +38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $902 −$900 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $802 +$116 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $717 +$86 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $555 +$161 +29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $496 +$60 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $160 −$156 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $343 −$338 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $275 +$50 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 19 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 19 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 16 $47 −$47 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 16 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 16 $15 +$12 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $210 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $272 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $800 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $201 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $178 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $300 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $596 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $256 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $995 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $946 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $837 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $779 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2,014 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $902 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $802 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $717 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $555 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $496 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $160 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 50¢ $343 4d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $325 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $325 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $275 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.35 · official $853.35 (match) · 53 history records