Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0B 0x0be7…20a8 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$63 (+13%) realized +$66 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$61
sports 14% −$4
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.1% +10.4% 55% 55% +4.7%
≤30d 11 +22.1% +10.4% 55% 55% +4.7%
≤90d 11 +22.1% +10.4% 55% 55% +4.7%
all 11 +22.1% +10.4% 55% 55% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 55% +4.7%
10% -0.1% 55% -5.3%
15% -9.8% 55% -14.4%
20% -18.6% 45% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$24 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$62 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$39 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $18 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $17 38h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 19¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $77 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $60 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.58 · official $81.58 (match) · 22 history records