Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0be4…2ed6 crypto 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$379 (-2%) realized −$379 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%139W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$1,822
14 days−$1,822
30 days−$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$769
weather 33% −$132
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -30.1% -36.8% 47% 38% -35.2%
≤30d 128 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 43% -13.8%
≤90d 216 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 35% -13.3%
all 242 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 36% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -13.0%
10% -26.4% 25% -21.3%
15% -33.6% 17% -28.9%
20% -40.1% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$48 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses139 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage150d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$35 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$76 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$20 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$102 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $415 −$280 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $311 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$95 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$57 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $310 +$141 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$205 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $123 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $315 +$78 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $302 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$43 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$28 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $132 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $73 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $139 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $28 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $132 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $53 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $194 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $111 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $207 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $311 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records