Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0B 0x0be4…b548 other 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$598 (+2%) realized +$792 · open −$194
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%136W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$6
14 days+$43
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$489
politics 19% −$453
world 12% +$474
sports 6% −$222
economics 5% +$50
tech 3% +$220
culture 2% +$8
crypto 1% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.7% +6.5% 83% 33% -10.0%
≤30d 20 +9.5% -0.9% 75% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 96 +24.3% +12.5% 56% 33% -7.3%
all 244 +9.4% -1.0% 56% 31% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 31% -5.6%
10% -10.5% 20% -14.6%
15% -19.1% 15% -22.9%
20% -27.1% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$3,987
Realized+$792
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses136 / 108
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions40
Markets (closed)244 / 284
History coverage180d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $603 $535 −$68 (-11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 86¢ $508 $519 +$11 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $411 $416 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $340 $322 −$18 (-5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $264 $299 +$35 (+13%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $425 $292 −$132 (-31%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $101 $196 +$95 (+94%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $154 $162 +$7 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $88 $112 +$23 (+26%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $81 $100 +$19 (+23%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $83 $94 +$10 (+13%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 76¢ 61¢ $114 $92 −$22 (-20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 21¢ $135 $85 −$50 (-37%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 74¢ 99¢ $56 $74 +$19 (+34%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $52 $66 +$13 (+25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 46¢ 99¢ $23 $49 +$26 (+117%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 71¢ 44¢ $71 $44 −$26 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? No 86¢ 96¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+11%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 86¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+21%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $16 $24 +$7 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $674 −$37 -6%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $92 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $24 +$20 +85%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $258 +$2 +1%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 −$10 -20%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $262 −$255 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $532 +$271 +51%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $441 −$5 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $206 +$42 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $290 +$76 +26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 06 $379 +$7 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $162 +$19 +12%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $586 +$322 +55%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 04 $193 −$29 -15%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 02 $199 +$35 +18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $314 +$11 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 25 $5 +$17 +345%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? May 25 $25 +$23 +92%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 24 $46 +$139 +300%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 23 $74 +$22 +30%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? May 23 $6 $0 +6%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 23 $18 +$79 +427%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 May 22 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 22 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pri May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 19 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $47 +$8 +17%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $52 −$14 -26%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $49 −$6 -13%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $223 −$118 -53%
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $212 +$13 +6%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $72 +$110 +152%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $30 +$1 +2%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? May 01 $72 +$2 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? May 01 $58 +$273 +474%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $55 −$8 -15%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 28 $81 −$81 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $312 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $158 26h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 30h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 30h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 30h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $157 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $128 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $422 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,987.40 · official $3,987.51 (match) · 1703 history records