Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0be3…0893 crypto 553 markets active 1d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$321 (+7%) realized +$321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%292W / 261L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$6
14 days−$60
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$178
crypto 31% −$82
other 19% +$80
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 36% 36% -11.5%
≤30d 44 +18.4% +7.1% 41% 39% +13.8%
≤90d 466 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 45% -7.6%
all 553 +5.6% -4.5% 53% 49% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 49% -5.2%
10% -13.6% 41% -14.2%
15% -22.0% 33% -22.5%
20% -29.6% 24% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses292 / 261
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)553 / 553
History coverage103d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 553 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $56 −$8 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$42 +80%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $15 +$38 +249%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $11 +$38 +340%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $17 $0 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Atmane Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $15 +$33 +214%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $37 +$68 +184%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $23 −$23 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $10 +$42 +414%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 23 $18 +$34 +185%
Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 19 $5 +$25 +487%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov May 19 $29 +$101 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 19 $5 −$1 -24%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $18 −$13 -70%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $16 +$32 +193%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $43 +$35 +81%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel May 16 $84 −$82 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 72¢ $49 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $56 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Felix Balshaw 32¢ $33 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 21¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 100¢ $53 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 28¢ $15 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 23¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $49 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 5d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 8¢ $8 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 16¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 8¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng SELL Mark Lajal 93¢ $45 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Mark Lajal 33¢ $16 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 43¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1346 history records