Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0be2…3d21 crypto 409 markets active 7d ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-9%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate65%267W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$108
14 days−$173
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.2% -39.5% 33% 33% -79.8%
≤30d 219 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 46% -19.7%
≤90d 408 -7.1% -15.9% 65% 37% -18.7%
all 409 -7.3% -16.1% 65% 36% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 36% -18.7%
10% -24.1% 32% -26.5%
15% -31.5% 27% -33.6%
20% -38.2% 23% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses267 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)409 / 409
History coverage196d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 409 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$15 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$33 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records