Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bdc…3296 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$932 (-19%) realized −$775 · open −$157
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$492
14 days+$500
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,398
sports 20% +$618
politics 6% +$40
world 4% −$5
crypto 1% +$30
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +27.4% +15.3% 54% 46% +44.5%
≤30d 17 +21.5% +9.9% 53% 47% +12.6%
≤90d 20 +14.7% +3.7% 50% 45% -23.8%
all 22 +13.9% +3.1% 50% 45% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 45% -21.3%
10% -6.8% 32% -28.8%
15% -15.8% 32% -35.7%
20% -24.0% 23% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$170 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized−$775
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage600d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $638 $481 −$157 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $125 +$254 +204%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $356 +$270 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 −$131 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 +$61 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$55 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $66 −$4 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $773 +$607 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $560 −$557 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $205 −$5 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 12 $1,316 −$1,142 -87%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $300 +$40 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 50m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 51m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 51m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $41 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $176 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $449 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.09 · official $481.09 (match) · 161 history records